[GavinEdinburgh]

It’s going to be close

SCOTLAND’S leading political pundit has predicted that the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election is going to be closer than expected.
Professor John Curtice admitted it would be a “shock” if favourite Catherine Stihler does not hold the safe Labour seat – but he would not rule out a massive swing to the SNP.
His prediction follows an SNP poll carried out in Dunfermline at the weekend, which had Labour with 37 per cent of the vote and the Nationalists in second with 34 per cent.
“In by-elections in Scotland the Labour Party tends to lose votes,” said Professor Curtice.
“It has happened every time over the last 20 years or so, whether they were in opposition or in government, and the SNP usually profits.
“The question is, how much can they profit this time? We have heard a lot about Labour and the Lib Dems’ troubles, how they have had their wires crossed over the Forth Road Bridge and so on.
“But we have not heard much about what the SNP are doing to grab the kind of national headlines required to pull off this kind of victory.
“Still, it was only a few weeks ago we were asking whether or not the SNP could reclaim second place.”
The professor of Government at Strathclyde University has a track record as an election tipster that is second to none.
His exit poll for the BBC and ITV at the 2005 general election predicted a Labour majority of 66 – and he was out by just one seat.
Speaking exclusively to the Press this week, he tipped the narrowest Labour victory in West Fife for many years with the SNP moving up into second place.
And he suggested the national troubles of the Liberal Democrats would leave their candidate Willie Rennie looking over his shoulder at the unfancied Scottish Conservatives.
“It’s not such a safe seat that you would say, ‘Hey guys, this is a complete walkover, let’s just forget it’, but yes, there is an expectation for the Labour Party to win and it would be a shock if they don’t,” he said.
“Something like a 14 per cent swing is required. It’s not impossible. For example, if you go back to some previous by-elections Falkirk West in 2000 had a 15 or 16 per cent swing to the SNP.”
The late Rachel Squire was returned as MP in May with 20,111 votes, or 47.4 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were second with or 20.2 per cent and the SNP third with 18.9 per cent.
Professor Curtice added, “The more interesting question is whether or not the Tories can grab third place. It only requires a five per cent swing from Lib Dem to Tory for it to happen.”
“The most pressure is on the Lib Dems but it is nothing to do with local events. The by-election will be an early indicator to how much they have been affected by their national troubles.”
Professor Curtice said the “eyes of Scotland are on this by-election”, particularly with the chancellor and Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell as neighbouring MPs.
He explained, “It has become a national news story because of (a) Gordon Brown, (b) a rusty bridge, (c) the situation within the Liberal Democrats and (d) because a major employer has pulled out of the area.”
He added, “You have got some half decent candidates, which always helps. The Labour candidate is an MEP and she is reasonably bright, and the Lib Dem candidate is quite experienced.
“For a by-election in a relatively safe seat where we are not expecting a change of hands, it has grabbed a reasonable amount of attention.”
However, bookmakers were not convinced an upset could be on the cards, yesterday (Wednesday) quoting Catherine Stihler as a 1/10 favourite. The SNP are at 8/1, the Lib Dems at 10/1, the Tories at 25/1 and the Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls party at 66/1.

B4 today I thought it would be just another dreary Labour victory but the above article and my experience today has made me think twice. I will nail my colours to the mast - I am an SNP activist and was out today canvassing for the glorious yellow and black. The response was brill - the Lib Dem vote is collapsing and as they were in 2nd place for only the first time in the recent General Election, the drop in their vote is not surprising given their recent problems and it was surely only at an artificial high anyhow. They were ahead of us by only 800 votes last time by the way

Don't be surprised if they slip into fourth place as David Cameron was treated as a superstar on his visit earlier this week. Chas Kennedy was given a similar reception but this more out of sympathy for a good man done wrong and they are likely to get few votes of it!

If the SNP get a swing from Labour (which we will), and pick up a lot of tactical votes from the Lib Dems (and we will) then an upset in the constituency neighbouring Gordon Brown's, (remember he's the best Chancellor we have ever had yawwnn)! is not out out the question - odds of 8-1 will not be available for much longer I suspect!

In my SNP Branch there is a lady in her 90's who is as sharp as a button and always comes to meetings even though she is a wee bit frail now. She has been a member of the SNP for over 50 years and I want her to live to see an independent Scotland. On Thursday we can move a bit closer and I want her to be there as one of the guests of honour when the fireworks go up on Independence Day when it arrives and I hope and think it's coming soon!

Even if the SNP become the ruling party at the Scottish Parliament, it won't mean Scottish independence. It will mean the Scots will get a referendum, and somehow I can't see a majority voting yes.

(btw if it came to a referendum from a SNP Scottish government, do ex-pat Scots, ie. those living outside Scotland, get a vote?

As there are millions more Scots in England & abroad than actually in Scotland, and these in particular I think would be most unlikely to vote yes.)

[GavinEdinburgh]

Originally Posted by Eusebius

Even if the SNP become the ruling party at the Scottish Parliament, it won't mean Scottish independence. It will mean the Scots will get a referendum, and somehow I can't see a majority voting yes.

(btw if it came to a referendum from a SNP Scottish government, do ex-pat Scots, ie. those living outside Scotland, get a vote?

As there are millions more Scots in England & abroad than actually in Scotland, and these in particular I think would be most unlikely to vote yes.)

Have you spoken to every Scot living abroad and? And in England too? Hmmm what a busy little man you must have been!

Whether u have or not the question is irrelevant. The referendum will be for everyone living in Scotland at that time. In any case I did not start this thread on the arguments for and against Scottish Independence, I started it it on the by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife so let's stick to that please. If you want another discussion then that's cool but please then start another thread cos that is not what this is about.

Best wishes anyway!

Labour is clearly worried enough for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling to interfere with the locally important issue about the Forth road bridge toll, which is a devolved matter.

It was revealing of what Labour really thinks of devolution - not to be taken too seriously. The SNP could capitalise with their labelling of Scottish Labour as "London Labour". Labour has traditionally been so dominant in Scotland, but there could be change afoot.

The Scots are predominantly left of centre, hence the near-extinction of the Tories there, but with the rightwards shift of Labour into New Labour, that could lead to disillusionment and falling support in the Scottish Labour heartlands. The left-of-centre SNP is likely to one of the main beneficiaries of disaffected Scottish Labour support.

Originally Posted by GavinEdinburgh

Have you spoken to every Scot living abroad and? And in England too? Hmmm what a busy little man you must have been!

Whether u have or not the question is irrelevant. The referendum will be for everyone living in Scotland at that time. In any case I did not start this thread on the arguments for and against Scottish Independence, I started it it on the by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife so let's stick to that please. If you want another discussion then that's cool but please then start another thread cos that is not what this is about.

Best wishes anyway!

Well, you were the one who raised the issue, of it in the context of being a step towards Scottish Independence.

Previous polls indicate minority appetite among Scots, even in Scotland, for independence. (BBC poll 2005 - 33% for, 63% against.) The best chance for that the SNP had was 3 or 4 decades ago, and I fear the window of opportunity has passed.

Oh, and my prediction is Labour will hold, with the SNP second, and Lib Dems third.

[Geeg]

Originally Posted by Eusebius

Labour is clearly worried enough for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling to interfere with the locally important issue about the Forth road bridge toll, which is a devolved matter.

It was revealing of what Labour really thinks of devolution - not to be taken too seriously. The SNP could capitalise with their labelling of Scottish Labour as "London Labour". Labour has traditionally been so dominant in Scotland, but there could be change afoot.

The Scots are predominantly left of centre, hence the near-extinction of the Tories there, but with the rightwards shift of Labour into New Labour, that could lead to disillusionment and falling support in the Scottish Labour heartlands. The left-of-centre SNP is likely to one of the main beneficiaries of disaffected Scottish Labour support.

I'm not altogether convinced of the "Scots being left of centre" debate in itself. The Tories at one point in Scotland did very well. But an important factor to remember is that the party in Scotland is 'The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party' - dedicated to the Union and the removal of devolution. It is a bit like asking people to vote for the removal of their vote.

I do think the SNP will do well, but they still appear like 1970 rejects at times. By that I mean their tone, their way of campaigning seems old fashioned, out of touch. And frankly, on a lot of issues a little all over the place, making it hard for the electorate to know really what they are voting for.

The fact the SNP do well, is I feel, more to do with a desire for complete self governance as opposed to the other SNP policies and personalities.

Originally Posted by GG

But an important factor to remember is that the party in Scotland is 'The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party' - dedicated to the Union and the removal of devolution. It is a bit like asking people to vote for the removal of their vote.

That is an excellent point.

Does voting SNP necessarily mean a vote pro-Scottish independence? Or voting Tory necessarily mean a vote against independence and against devolution? Or do people vote for these parties with these considerations in lesser importance to policies on health, education, etc?

(Although I read recent news reports that apparently the Tory party in Scotland are being given autonomy to decide that they are in favour of devolution after all and would keep it...?)

[Geeg]

Originally Posted by Eusebius

That is an excellent point.

Does voting SNP necessarily mean a vote pro-Scottish independence? Or voting Tory necessarily mean a vote against independence and against devolution? Or do people vote for these parties with these considerations in lesser importance to policies on health, education, etc?

(Although I read recent news reports that apparently the Tory party in Scotland are being given autonomy to decide that they are in favour of devolution after all and would keep it...?)

The media in the UK talk frequently about legislation to do with health, education, law etc as if it is for the whole of Britain and not just for England or England/Wales that I think Scottish people often assume it is for them. I don't think they understand the reality of what parties actually stand for, and that applies to the Tories or the SNP. I do think it is as simplistic as Tories = bad, sell Scotland down the tubes, SNP = good, care about Scotland.

[Peter E]

Despite David Cameron making an apperance in the contitunecy the other day, there's no way the Tories will win it especially with Annabel Goldie as leader of the Scottish Conseratives, she's so lightweight it's untrue. She's a joke.

[morning]

Originally Posted by Peter E

Despite David Cameron making an apperance in the contitunecy the other day, there's no way the Tories will win it especially with Annabel Goldie as leader of the Scottish Conseratives, she's so lightweight it's untrue. She's a joke.

In that case, she'll fit right into the Tory party.

I saw her surrounded by police at the last big firm game. I was not there, it was on the tv news. She looked quite heavy actually.

[JustExhumed]

Why name the thread 'SNP to win Dunfermline & West By-Election' then go on to quote a respected election analyst who predicts a (albeit, close) Labour victory?

[GavinEdinburgh]

[quote=Eusebius]Well, you were the one who raised the issue, of it in the context of being a step towards Scottish Independence.

Previous polls indicate minority appetite among Scots, even in Scotland, for independence. (BBC poll 2005 - 33% for, 63% against.) The best chance for that the SNP had was 3 or 4 decades ago, and I fear the window of opportunity has passed.

I remember this poll - hardly anyone in Scotland took part in it! Most polls see a positive demand for independence around 40-50%. Also in elections people vote for a variety of reasons and there are a lot of Labour supporters and those of other parties who support independence but do note vote SNP.

[Geeg]

Originally Posted by Peter E

Despite David Cameron making an apperance in the contitunecy the other day, there's no way the Tories will win it especially with Annabel Goldie as leader of the Scottish Conseratives, she's so lightweight it's untrue. She's a joke.

Although not lightweight enough to have offended most of the voluntary sector, the health sector since her new found position. She has certainly done enough since becomeing leader to see the Tories dropping even further in the polls in Scotland. I say bring the English to Scotland and teach the Scottish Tories how to do it properly.

[Up Pompey!!]

i saw a piece on the poliitcs show

Someone went up to Charlie Kennedy and went 'i love you Mr Kennedy' and he replied 'Ssh, you'll start a scandal

Always in good humour old Charlie

[Peter E]

Originally Posted by GG

Although not lightweight enough to have offended most of the voluntary sector, the health sector since her new found position. She has certainly done enough since becomeing leader to see the Tories dropping even further in the polls in Scotland.

Really, that's great news.

[GavinEdinburgh]

Well the Labourites are certainly worried!

Due to their lack of activists I know for a fact that the Labourite MP's who missed the Commons vote were sitting in the local office stuffing envelopes with the election address something that would normally be done by humble activists!!

Yesterday we drove around and all the Labourites could muster were a couple of old men and a dog!

[thms]

i had voted snp all my life (up to and including 1997)
imo alex salmond and nicola sturgeon are vote losers

[morning]

Originally Posted by pup100

i saw a piece on the poliitcs show

Someone went up to Charlie Kennedy and went 'i love you Mr Kennedy' and he replied 'Ssh, you'll start a scandal

Always in good humour old Charlie

I saw that too, I wonder what extras get paid these days.

[GavinEdinburgh]

Originally Posted by thms

i had voted snp all my life (up to and including 1997)
imo alex salmond and nicola sturgeon are vote losers

You don't vote for the personalities you vote for the cause of independence. Get back on that horse!

[GavinEdinburgh]

W Hills were offering 8-1 on an SNP victory - is worth a fiver but I bet the odds have been slashed by now!!

[morning]

Come on New Labour.

Actually it would be funny if Labour loses the seat to the SNP. It would be on the list of famous by-election shocks.

And up there with Glasgow Govan in the SNP's hall of fame.

I still think Labour will hold, though on a much reduced majority.

[swingaleg]

Lib dem win................

[Mark.]

Originally Posted by swingaleg

Lib dem win................

14% Swing!!

[Flying Burrito]

Originally Posted by swingaleg

Lib dem win................

Well, I'll be buggered