Branson woe as viewers quit VM? - Virgin Media TV and Phone

02-05-2007, 07:56

Following on from the recent survey of analysts' forecasts of Sky's forthcoming figures, analysts are starting to update their forecasts of VM's, in advance of the forthcoming numbers.

Goldman Sachs have been first and have adjusted their forecasts down with the following bullet points:

- Need to reflect the impact of customer losses following the withdrawal of Sky channels and ongoing competitive pressure on the telephony base.

- Expect 1Q07 net loss of TV customers, and
adverse impacts from rebranding costs , the repricing of Flextech and B2B telephony network implementation.

- Free cash flow falls 4% in 2007 and 7% in 2008E due to higher capex.

- Key risks are developing competitive pressures in UK residential telephony and broadband weakens ARPU or lower customer growth at Virgin Media than previously forecast

- New TV product (HD and VOD) may boost TV ARPU by more than previously forecast.

- VM's move into more extensive out of franchise operations could add value but there is downside risk to earnings short
term from higher costs due to this activity.

- In 1Q expect another quarter of overall customer losses (-42k) in addition to a qoq fall in telephony users (-20k) and, in a deterioration of the recent trend, a fall in TV users (-15k) following the loss of Sky One.

- Expect a slower rate of growth from Consumer Cable at just under 1% yoy vs 2% last quarter, with Business down 3% yoy and Content down 10% on Flextech.

- Expect EBITDA of £296 mn including restructuring costs which is up 1% yoy once the exceptional restructuring costs are factored into the 1Q06 figure.

- Put another way, expect the inclusion of VM in the scope of consolidation, and cost efficiencies to be offset by the spending on the rebranding and lower earnings from content.

tvtimes · 02-05-2007, 07:57

and what about all the extra customer's they hope to get from launching free view and also the deal with cable and wireless?

02-05-2007, 07:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvtimes

and what about all the extra customer's they hope to get from launching free view and also the deal with cable and wireless?

See above emboldened text!

The analysts are reviewing the Q1 figures - the "hope value" of the changes you propose, if they evcer occur, is a long, long way off into the future!

tvtimes · 02-05-2007, 08:00

New Virgin media stores are also launching UK wide in the next several months with the hope of pulling in more customer's by staff being able to give demonstrations of the service and other things too

tvtimes · 02-05-2007, 08:03

Your original post is not solid evidence either. I agree my post was about VM hoping their gamble will pay off. But Virgin Media are expanding outside their area how does that indicate they are going to lose customer's?

02-05-2007, 08:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvtimes

New Virgin media stores are also launching UK wide in the next several months with the hope of pulling in more customer's by staff being able to give demonstrations of the service and other things too

Expect them to be closed quite frequently for random "staff out to lunch" (a.k.a. "another VM system failure") breaks!

richard1960 · 02-05-2007, 08:16

Breaking news.

"my rep in dolphin square, has let me down"
"He promised me he would get his landlord to switch to sky,however his landlord went with rb". "It is there fore with great regret that i must let him go"
james murdoch.

starsailor123 · 02-05-2007, 08:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

See above emboldened text!

The analysts are reviewing the Q1 figures - the "hope value" of the changes you propose, if they evcer occur, is a long, long way off into the future!

See above embolden text

The analysts are making projections on what the Q1 figures will show they are not reviewing anything as until next wednesday there is nothing to review.

In terms of the statements by Goldman Sachs I hope that people dont pay a lot for that information

Most of that information is relatively well known or can be surmised by a a level student.

The phone numbers are falling ( and will continue to fall ) for all landline providers as Skype and such like take more market share. In 10 years time Landline will be the same as Video Cassettes redundant

Everything expect a fall in TV number but if the fall was only 15,000 (a lot less than Sky target of 150,000) I suspect that the executives would be relieved that Skys tactics did not work.

tvtimes · 02-05-2007, 08:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

Expect them to be closed quite frequently for random "staff out to lunch" (a.k.a. "another VM system failure") breaks!

Sorry but now you are being silly.

richard1960 · 02-05-2007, 08:27

Sounds like the name of a thread i started,they do say imitation is the sincerist form of flattery do they not. Thanks nojo608.

02-05-2007, 08:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard1960

Breaking news.

"my rep in dolphin square, has let me down"
"He promised me he would get his landlord to switch to sky,however his landlord went with rb". "It is there fore with great regret that i must let him go"
james murdoch.

Nice try - but James always signs-off "Jamie" when sending my monthly cheque.

02-05-2007, 08:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by starsailor123

See above embolden text In terms of the statements by Goldman Sachs I hope that people dont pay a lot for that information
Most of that information is relatively well known or can be surmised by a a level student.

Many of Goldman's media analysts are on seven figures, so I guess they make a lot of people a lot of money.

You are welcome to apply for a job with them, on the basis of your extensive knowledge of the matter.

02-05-2007, 08:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvtimes

Sorry but now you are being silly.

Nice spot.

richard1960 · 02-05-2007, 08:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

Nice try - but James always signs-off "Jamie" when sending my monthly cheque.

That may be the case,but how would he like to know his employees,were helping rb,out financially.

nojo608,you are probably a nice person,but on here you are a complete wind up merchant. Suppose it must relieve your boredom though.And its quite entertaining.

starsailor123 · 02-05-2007, 11:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

Many of Goldman's media analysts are on seven figures, so I guess they make a lot of people a lot of money.

You are welcome to apply for a job with them, on the basis of your extensive knowledge of the matter.

Beleive me, as an accountant I am well paid enough, and having a seven figure sum is not always to do with ability but merely a lack of ethics, morals or luck

starsailor123 · 02-05-2007, 11:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

Many of Goldman's media analysts are on seven figures, so I guess they make a lot of people a lot of money.

You are welcome to apply for a job with them, on the basis of your extensive knowledge of the matter.

ps noticed that once again you edit me post to exclude the bit in the middle you want to forget!

02-05-2007, 11:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by starsailor123

Beleive me, as an accountant I am well paid enough, and having a seven figure sum is not always to do with ability but merely a lack of ethics, morals or luck

Quite right.
The most consistently succesful investment bank in the world is staffed by a load of unethical, immoral flukestars.

starsailor123 · 02-05-2007, 12:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

Quite right.
The most consistently succesful investment bank in the world is staffed by a load of unethical, immoral flukestars.

Glad were agreed on that

You, me and most of the United Kingdom when they see paycheques and money made by some individuals

goomba · 02-05-2007, 12:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

- New TV product (HD and VOD) may boost TV ARPU by more than previously forecast.

What new chargable HD content was there in Q1? What new chargable VoD content was there in Q1?

02-05-2007, 12:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by goomba

What new chargable HD content was there in Q1? What new chargable VoD content was there in Q1?

This comment was looking forward from the date of the latest figures.

Elojikal · 02-05-2007, 12:45

I bet a fair few of the residents in Dolphin Square were upset by Chelsea's loss last night. To compound matters some youths broke into the underground car park and trashed a load of the residents bandwagons. They'll probably replace them with some brand new shiny red bandwagons.

Still they've always got their "over the counter" medication to cheer them up.

Are you really THAT desperate for Sky News, Nojo?

02-05-2007, 12:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elojikal

I bet a fair few of the residents in Dolphin Square were upset by Chelsea's loss last night. To compound matters some youths broke into the underground car park and trashed a load of the residents bandwagons. They'll probably replace them with some brand new shiny red bandwagons.
Still they've always got their "over the counter" medication to cheer them up.
Are you really THAT desperate for Sky News, Nojo?

With all due respect - just WHAT ON EARTH are you talking about?!

starsailor123 · 02-05-2007, 13:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by nojo608

With all due respect - just WHAT ON EARTH are you talking about?!

Much as it pains me

I have to agree with you.

Off now to get some rest......... that hurt

sodafountain · 02-05-2007, 13:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elojikal

I bet a fair few of the residents in Dolphin Square were upset by Chelsea's loss last night. To compound matters some youths broke into the underground car park and trashed a load of the residents bandwagons. They'll probably replace them with some brand new shiny red bandwagons.

Still they've always got their "over the counter" medication to cheer them up.

Are you really THAT desperate for Sky News, Nojo?

Ironically, it was Sky News that had the early morning breaking story of a helicopter crash, containg 4 or 5 Chelsea high profile board members. The story, obviously did not appear on any other news broadcast or website, Sky being first again.

Of course, half hour later, when the full story broke, it was actually a rich Chelsea supporter, that may be a VIP vice-president or something, not the 4 or 5 high profile board members as Sky news reported.

Is first to the news the best way to report the news?

richard1960 · 02-05-2007, 13:07

Got to admit sky new is not too bad,except when the annoying jeremy thompson is on,Have just got a freeview box as well,so i have sky news,sports news back. For a while As our landlord would not let ntl,get rid of the terrestrial feed unlike nojo608s

, .

02-05-2007, 07:56	#1
nojo608 Posts: n/a	Branson woe as viewers quit VM? Following on from the recent survey of analysts' forecasts of Sky's forthcoming figures, analysts are starting to update their forecasts of VM's, in advance of the forthcoming numbers. Goldman Sachs have been first and have adjusted their forecasts down with the following bullet points: - Need to reflect the impact of customer losses following the withdrawal of Sky channels and ongoing competitive pressure on the telephony base. - Expect 1Q07 net loss of TV customers, and adverse impacts from rebranding costs , the repricing of Flextech and B2B telephony network implementation. - Free cash flow falls 4% in 2007 and 7% in 2008E due to higher capex. - Key risks are developing competitive pressures in UK residential telephony and broadband weakens ARPU or lower customer growth at Virgin Media than previously forecast - New TV product (HD and VOD) may boost TV ARPU by more than previously forecast. - VM's move into more extensive out of franchise operations could add value but there is downside risk to earnings short term from higher costs due to this activity. - In 1Q expect another quarter of overall customer losses (-42k) in addition to a qoq fall in telephony users (-20k) and, in a deterioration of the recent trend, a fall in TV users (-15k) following the loss of Sky One. - Expect a slower rate of growth from Consumer Cable at just under 1% yoy vs 2% last quarter, with Business down 3% yoy and Content down 10% on Flextech. - Expect EBITDA of £296 mn including restructuring costs which is up 1% yoy once the exceptional restructuring costs are factored into the 1Q06 figure. - Put another way, expect the inclusion of VM in the scope of consolidation, and cost efficiencies to be offset by the spending on the rebranding and lower earnings from content.

02-05-2007, 13:07	#25
richard1960 Forum Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: somewhere in europe. Services: all vm services. Posts: 3,625	Got to admit sky new is not too bad,except when the annoying jeremy thompson is on,Have just got a freeview box as well,so i have sky news,sports news back. For a while As our landlord would not let ntl,get rid of the terrestrial feed unlike nojo608s , . Last edited by richard1960 : 02-05-2007 at 13:10.

02-05-2007, 07:57	#2
tvtimes Forum Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Gender: Male Location: Under a rock Services: XL TV, 10meg BB and phone Posts: 7,004	and what about all the extra customer's they hope to get from launching free view and also the deal with cable and wireless?

02-05-2007, 08:00	#4
tvtimes Forum Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Gender: Male Location: Under a rock Services: XL TV, 10meg BB and phone Posts: 7,004	New Virgin media stores are also launching UK wide in the next several months with the hope of pulling in more customer's by staff being able to give demonstrations of the service and other things too

02-05-2007, 08:03	#5
tvtimes Forum Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Gender: Male Location: Under a rock Services: XL TV, 10meg BB and phone Posts: 7,004	Your original post is not solid evidence either. I agree my post was about VM hoping their gamble will pay off. But Virgin Media are expanding outside their area how does that indicate they are going to lose customer's?

02-05-2007, 08:16	#7
richard1960 Forum Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: somewhere in europe. Services: all vm services. Posts: 3,625	Breaking news. "my rep in dolphin square, has let me down" "He promised me he would get his landlord to switch to sky,however his landlord went with rb". "It is there fore with great regret that i must let him go" james murdoch.

02-05-2007, 08:27	#10
richard1960 Forum Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: somewhere in europe. Services: all vm services. Posts: 3,625	Sounds like the name of a thread i started,they do say imitation is the sincerist form of flattery do they not. Thanks nojo608.

02-05-2007, 12:45	#21
Elojikal Forum Member Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Brighton Services: NTL Posts: 1,223	I bet a fair few of the residents in Dolphin Square were upset by Chelsea's loss last night. To compound matters some youths broke into the underground car park and trashed a load of the residents bandwagons. They'll probably replace them with some brand new shiny red bandwagons. Still they've always got their "over the counter" medication to cheer them up. Are you really THAT desperate for Sky News, Nojo?