[Bluenile]

I thought I'd start a new thread with a title that won't become out of date after a few days.

The latest poll out is on Wednesday 27/06/07 by Yougov for Sky News and gives the following results:

CON 37% (nc): LAB 36% (+1): LD 12% (-2).

A new YouGov poll for Sky News which was published overnight has the Lib Dems at their worst ever figure from the firm - even below the last low point of 13% in January 2006 in a survey taken after the Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes tabloid revelations.

http://politicalbetting.com/index.ph...ms-down-at-12/

Head to head, Brown against Cameron, the signs are good for the incoming Prime Minister.

He ranks higher than his Tory rival on trust and leadership; those polled thought he would be better at running the NHS, the economy and education policy.

There are crumbs of comfort for David Cameron - he is ahead on charisma according to the poll, and he holds a narrow lead on foreign policy and the environment.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/...272431,00.html

[starsailor]

Ouch, not good for the Lib Dum's.....Ming better watch his back for a knife in it.

[Phil 2804]

Originally Posted by starsailor

Ouch, not good for the Lib Dum's.....Ming better watch his back for a knife in it.

Normal 2 party politics is re-establishing itself and I doubt there is much the Lib Dems can do about it. Disillusioned Labour voters will probably now rally around Brown and moderate former Tories will rally round Cameron in the South.

A two way squeeze. We saw it happen in Scotland this may when the Lib Dems were squeezed by Labour in the Central Belt and the SNP in North and North East.

The polls are fascinating right now, very like 1992 but in reverse. Again just as in 1992 the key indicator will not be the headline vote shares but the inner polls on the issues.

Although Labour narrowly led in the headline votes in the 1992 polls in all of them the Tories had big leads on the key issues, biggest of all was "best PM" where Major averaged 15% ahead of Kinnock.

[swingaleg]

Originally Posted by Bluenile

I thought I'd start a new thread with a title that won't become out of date after a few days.

Hey, bluenile............

Just seeing this thread has reminded me of the similar thread that we had in the run up to the last General Election............makes interesting reading as we had a few 'experts' and got into a detailed debate about the nature of the polls, as well as simple reportage and banter/points scoring............

If you're interested in the subject, you might enjoy it..........

( don't worry if you can't be bothered tho'......... )


http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...hlight=opinion

[thms]

i took part in that you gov poll..

[karijn]

Cameron charismatic?

He's as charismatic as a dead fish.

[Bluenile]

Originally Posted by swingaleg

Hey, bluenile............

Just seeing this thread has reminded me of the similar thread that we had in the run up to the last General

If you're interested in the subject, you might enjoy it..........

( don't worry if you can't be bothered tho'......... )


http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...hlight=opinion

Thanks.

Just had a read through it. interesting stuff. It looks like nearly all the polls overstated Labour last time...

[Bluenile]

Two extremely bad polls for the Tories out over the next few days apparently, ICM (Guardian) and YouGov (Telegraph), according to the (usually very well informed) posters on here:

http://www.politicalbetting.com/

[Bluenile]

Here we go:

An ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian will put the Labour Party four points ahead (39% to 35%) and there'll be a YouGov poll for The Telegraph that is also expected to give Gordon Brown the lead.

Info from:

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/to...yourself-.html

and:

http://www.politicalbetting.com/

[karijn]

Thanks Bluenile.

That's cheered me up after reading that Clair Short is thinking of returning to Labour.

[Bluenile]

A september election may now be a possibility....

http://www.politicalbetting.com/

I'd like to see Brown promise to call a referendum on the current EU treaty and to bring all UK troops home from Iraq in his next term if he gets re-elected and then call a General Election immediately.

[Bluenile]

Labour 38% (+3) Tories 35% (-2) on the Telegraph/Yougov poll.

[swingaleg]

Despite the bleating about mandates, I don't think the public would take too kindly to a PM that called a general election when he had a 60-odd seat majority and almost 3 years left of the parliament.

We're not even half way through this parliament.


I don't think people like general elections..........the tv schedule gets b*ggered up and all those politicians on the news and daytime TV piss people off..........

[Jamandell (d69)]

There better not be a September election...I will have just started Uni then and I won't really have time to campaign!
(Unless it's in early May )

[thms]

i'm free

[Bluenile]

Times/Populus 3rd July:

Labour 37% (+4) Tories 34% (-2) Lib Dems 18% (+1)

"Gordon Brown has got off to flying start as Prime Minister with his poll ratings as a leader and for strength soaring following his handling of the terrorist attacks.

A new Populus poll for The Times confirms the strength of the “Brown bounce”, in contrast with a decline in David Cameron’s leader rating.

Labour has gained four points to 37 per cent since early last month and the Tories are down two points at 34 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are up one point at 18 per cent and other parties down three points at 11 per cent. This is in line with two other recent polls and suggests that 14 months of a sustained Conservative lead has ended.

The proportion saying that Mr Brown has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister has risen by 16 points to 57 per cent, compared with 37 per cent for Mr Cameron.

Only 31 per cent say that they would rather have Mr Cameron as prime minister than Mr Brown, and 52 per cent disagree."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2017701.ece

http://politicalbetting.com/index.ph...-with-populus/

[Tel69]

Originally Posted by Bluenile

A september election may now be a possibility....

http://www.politicalbetting.com/

I'd like to see Brown promise to call a referendum on the current EU treaty and to bring all UK troops home from Iraq in his next term if he gets re-elected and then call a General Election immediately.

Like I've said before, he would be silly not to call an election ASAP as he'd be a dead cert to win because the Tories are in their usual mess.

If Brown would include those commitments in his manifesto I might even be persuaded to vote for him myself.

[duncann]

Originally Posted by Tel69

Like I've said before, he would be silly not to call an election ASAP as he'd be a dead cert to win because the Tories are in their usual mess.

If Brown would include those commitments in his manifesto I might even be persuaded to vote for him myself.

Hang on. Labour is virtually bankrupt and can't afford to fight an election no matter what. The Tories are now well into the black and their contributions are massively ahead of Labour's and ongoing.

These polls are all + or - 4% so the bounce could be no bounce at all, and in elections polls close very fast to neck and neck. It's way too close to call and one poll does not an election make. He'd need a clear year of being 7% ahead to feel confident of winning.

Brown would be very hard pressed to get anywhere near the majority he has at the moment. Blair got a 60 seat majority on a dreadfulyl low 35.2% of the vote but boundaries have changed and the Tories share of the vote is much higher, even if Labour's is too. Why would Brown squeeze his majority, there is no need to?

Labour just fought elections in councils across England and got heavily defeated - they don't have the people in place at the moment in councils to do the leg work and in Scotland they would still likely lose seats to the SNP, and they might suffer in Wales.

He won't be calling an election any time soon.

[Tel69]

Originally Posted by duncann

Hang on. Labour is virtually bankrupt and can't afford to fight an election no matter what. The Tories are now well into the black and their contributions are massively ahead of Labour's and ongoing.

These polls are all + or - 4% so the bounce could be no bounce at all, and in elections polls close very fast to neck and neck. It's way too close to call and one poll does not an election make. He'd need a clear year of being 7% ahead to feel confident of winning.

Brown would be very hard pressed to get anywhere near the majority he has at the moment. Blair got a 60 seat majority on a dreadfulyl low 35.2% of the vote but boundaries have changed and the Tories share of the vote is much higher, even if Labour's is too. Why would Brown squeeze his majority, there is no need to?

Labour just fought elections in councils across England and got heavily defeated - they don't have the people in place at the moment in councils to do the leg work and in Scotland they would still likely lose seats to the SNP, and they might suffer in Wales.

He won't be calling an election any time soon.

The electorate won't give a monkeys who is bankrupt. They will care about which party has the better policies and as the Tories have none to speak of they will lose. Brown will regret not going to the polls now IF camera on develops anything worth voting for.

[duncann]

Originally Posted by Tel69

The electorate won't give a monkeys who is bankrupt. They will care about which party has the better policies and as the Tories have none to speak of they will lose. Brown will regret not going to the polls now IF camera on develops anything worth voting for.

He can't fight an election without funds - the Party has to pay the salaries for all of its staff, a deposit for every candidate, for all its polls, for all of its manifesto printing, for all its consultants, for all of its advertising and PPBs, travel and transport and press conferences etc. It needs millions to do so, otherwise it will be invisible. The small parties get drowned out in any election, because they have 10% of the funds. When Labour has won it has outspent every other party in electioneering, it's a prerequisite for winning.

[thms]

the first time i voted labour was in 2001 and i might be pursuaded to join them in 2007.

[Bluenile]

Sunday Mirror/ICM poll: Sunday 8th July

(Changes are from the ICM/Guardian poll taken at the end of June)

CON 35% (nc), LAB 37% (-2), LDEM 17% (-1).

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blo.../1006#comments

I find it interesting that Labour/Lib Dem support has dropped by a total of 3% but the Tories haven't gained from it.

Could this signal increased support for the SNP in the wake of the Glasgow airport attack and Alex Salmond being on TV?

If so I wouldn't expect it to last. (Subject to there being no further attacks in Scotland)

[starsailor]

Originally Posted by thms

the first time i voted labour was in 2001 and i might be pursuaded to join them in 2007.

Looking for a lordship are you?

[twofnine]

I think that we are looking at a Hung Parliament at the Next General Election!

[Bluenile]

CON 33% (-2), LAB 40% (+3), LD 19% (+2)

David Cameron suffers a major setback today as an opinion poll gives Labour its biggest lead over the Conservatives since he became Leader of the Opposition.

The survey for The Sunday Telegraph puts Gordon Brown's party on 40 per cent, a significant seven points ahead of the Tories, who are on 33 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 19 per cent.

The clear evidence of a stronger than expected "Brown bounce" following the new Prime Minister's arrival at No 10 comes amid further bad news for the Tories as it can be revealed that their candidate in Thursday's Ealing Southall by-election donated £4,800 to Labour only last month.

Despite Mr Cameron's attempts to modernise his party, the Conservatives are performing particularly badly among younger voters, aged between 18 and 24, where they trail Labour by 23 per cent.

If subsequent polls show Labour's lead holding over the summer, Mr Brown will be further encouraged to call a snap election - possibly by this autumn.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.../nbrown115.xml