Canis chief: Sky sub target "in spitting distance"

Ed Hall is the chief executive of Canis Media, the UK's leading television channel broker and specialists in the trading of electronic programme guide positions. In this comment for Digital Spy, Hall predicts how the UK's broadcasting industry will handle a potentially difficult 2009.

As we start the New Year, I can already see 2009 that will be a benchmark year for the broadcasting industry in the UK. Finally the digital revolution is over. Analogue is dead. Long live HD. The long awaited switch-off has commenced. What does that mean for the UK broadcasting industry? It’s time to make some predictions for the year.

2008 was no stranger to business failures in broadcasting. A number of channels disappeared from our EPGs and not all of them were small niche businesses. The economic downturn is hitting broadcasters hard and 2009 will be no exception. Sadly it doesn’t take a great sage to predict continued falling revenues from traditional broadcast advertising.

So aside from the gloomy forecast and continued steady flow of channels closing, what are the positives in store for us this year? The focus this year will be on further cross platform consolidation and we will see strengthening of linear broadcast services by using other media. Take the BBC or GMG group as examples, one news service supplying online, radio, print and TV. Look out in 2009 for phone-based video menus to browse 3G video content: user numbers and their commercial value will soar.

We have already started seeing broadcasters migrate from the web onto traditional TV. In 2009 we will start to see major live events broadcast on social networking sites. I can see that this year we could see successful online businesses start buying some TV channels. Some years ago we saw ITV acquire Friends Reunited, I predict that in 2009 we will see the reverse, the first acquisition of a broadcaster buy a web-based business. Who will be the UK’s AOL Time Warner?

Political parties, D-list celebrities, and high quality brand-funded content already use online delivery in an extraordinary way, but they might now turn to traditional broadcast as a cost-effective method of getting their messages across. Will we see Red Bull TV? Why not?

2008 saw the launch of Ocean TV, the first ever financial self-promotional television channel and one of only two on Sky. As the advertising world that reigns over so much of what happens on TV ponders its future, will it also change the shape of how we view TV forever? More branded content and advertiser funded channels?

With nearly 30 HD channels already in the UK, this country is leading the way in creating a vital new space for advertisers and increased viewing experiences. Despite a more converged landscape on our screens and a world of VOD and ‘triple-play’, this could be another year when the doom-mongers of BSkyB are proved wrong, as the 10m viewership target is now within spitting distance. The VOD platforms have struggled and many have come and gone. I predict that BT Vision will surprise everyone with their subscriber growth this year.

Here at Canis Media, our commercial services team are already aware of half a dozen broadcasters, many from overseas, spending money on UK distribution. For every British company going bust on digital television, you can be sure that a foreign broadcaster will be hot on their heels for the carriage and channel number.

In order to stay broadcasting, 2009 will see many channels outsource the core operations function, take their ad-sales in-house and focus on getting the content right in the hope that their viewers don’t abandon them. Some smaller broadcasters might announce for the first time that they have made more revenue from their online presence than traditional broadcast advertising.
But if dramatic growth and new broadcast potential is what you’re looking for in 2009, then I think that one market trumps the rest. Keep a close eye on Africa – East African cable in particular. You heard it here first.